Read the latest issue of The Dairy Bar, a bi-weekly report from IDFA partner Ever.Ag. The Dairy Bar features spotlight data, key policy updates, and a one-minute video that covers timely topics for the dairy industry.
The Dairy Bar: Thanksgiving Dinner Costs; GLP-1 Medication Utilization; and Holiday Spending in a Minute!
Quick Bites: Weight Loss Trends Shift Demand
- A growing number of Americans are using GLP-1 medications to aid in weight loss. A recent Gallup poll shows that 12% of adults were using GLP-1 medications during Q2 and Q3 of this year – double the rate of Q1 2024.
- These medications dramatically change people’s eating habits and the volume of food they consume. A survey conducted by the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) found GLP-1 users consume nearly 700 less calories per day, about 30% of a person’s average daily intake. Lighter shopping baskets are weighing on several core categories. The AAEA survey shows GLP-1 users are eating 65% less fried food, 56% fewer sweets and 47% less pasta.
- Dairy product purchases are getting more of a mixed response. GLP-1 users report eating 31% less dairy overall. Numerator data shows GLP-1 users are spending 7% less on cheese, 6% less on butter and 5% less on ice cream within six months of starting the medication.
- Protein-forward foods are emerging as clear winners, driven by a desire and need for functional, higher-protein diets as overall calorie consumption drops. According to data provided by Glanbia Nutritionals, protein powder consumption surged 67% year-over-year. That survey also shows ready-to-drink shake consumption up roughly 46% among users, and powder, cereals and protein snacks posting strong double-digit gains. These categories are capturing some of the strongest momentum in today’s eating trends.
- GLP-1 medications are reshaping – not shrinking – dairy demand. While people may be pulling away from calorie-dense options, they are reallocating calories toward high-protein, performance-driven products. This shift is only likely to accelerate as adoption of these weight loss medications grows.
Today's Special
- Rising prices are still making headlines, but for the third straight year, Thanksgiving dinner costs are lower. In its 40th annual survey, the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) pegged the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people at $55.18, down 5% from 2024. Just three years ago, that same meal cost $64.05.
- Shoppers should find big price savings when picking out the cornerstone of their Thanksgiving meal. A 16-pound turkey cost $21.50 in this year’s AFBF survey. At $1.34 per pound, that was down more than 16% from last year. While wholesale turkey prices are actually up, grocery stores are expected to offer deals to draw in demand as turkey farms rebuild after avian influenza swept through flocks around the country. Beyond Thanksgiving, turkey demand is faltering among Americans, who only eat 13 pounds of turkey a year – almost 3 pounds less than six years ago.
- Other menu items falling in price were those made with wheat. This includes dinner rolls and stuffing, which were down 14.6% and 9.0%, respectively.
- Looking for butter to put on those rolls? Abundant supply has retailers pushing promotions, which is not uncommon this time of year. Still, week 46 specials at 12,500 stores were up an average of 13% compared to the same week last year. The average sale price was $3.72 per pound, down 8% from last year. Shoppers seem to be taking advantage of the deals, as Circana data reported butter sales up by just over 10% year-over-year the first full week of November.
- As for other dairy products on the AFBF menu, those items came in higher. A gallon of whole milk averaged $3.73, up 16.3%. A half pint of whipping cream – used to top those delicious pies – rose 3.2% to $1.87. The biggest price spikes, however, were felt in fresh vegetables and sweet potatoes. A veggie tray climbed more than 61%, and a three-pound bag of sweet potatoes cost 37% more this year. Weather challenges, labor shortages and transportation delays make prices for fresh produce more volatile.
- Even with a more affordable Thanksgiving meal, consumers are still reacting cautiously and seeking value. According to a Deloitte survey, just 36% of shoppers plan to buy more expensive prepared sides or desserts. About a third will purchase more private label products. One in three respondents expect to serve or eat a less fancy meal with lower-cost dishes. Another third plan to invite fewer guests to downsize costs. However, people are still looking for a good holiday experience, as 7 in 10 reported that getting the best value for their money matters more than finding the least expensive option when it comes to Thanksgiving dinner.