Read the latest issue of The Dairy Bar, a bi-weekly report from IDFA partner Ever.Ag. The Dairy Bar features spotlight data, key policy updates, and a one-minute video that covers timely topics for the dairy industry.
The Dairy Bar: Cheese Grating is Having a Moment; Immigration Impacts Growth and Spending; and Summer Travel in a Minute!
Quick Bites: Immigration Impacts Population Growth and Spending
- The agriculture industry has been keeping a close eye on immigration policy and enforcement, a situation that remains fluid. Immigrant workers are vital to many farms and agricultural businesses. But immigration is also a factor in population growth and overall consumer demand.
- A paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas revealed some eye-opening statistics on U.S. immigration flow. According to Department of Homeland Security data, net unauthorized immigration was 8.5 million persons between January 2021 and December 2024. During that same period, U.S. Census Bureau statistics show the U.S. population grew by 9.2 million people (+2.8%). Four years earlier, from January 2017 to December 2020, unauthorized immigration totaled 1.6 million persons while the total population was up by 6.2 million (+1.9%).
- How might changes in immigration impact the U.S. population moving forward? The Dallas Fed’s baseline projection puts cumulative net unauthorized immigration between March 2025 and December 2028 at -220,000 individuals. A situation with no deportations has a projection of +108,000 people, while a mass deportation scenario could reduce the population by 2,617,000 individuals. On the other hand, using immigration policies from November 2024, the Congressional Budget Office projected immigration flows to be +2,067,000 by December 2028.
More people generate more consumption, but if immigration rates change noticeably, overall population growth is not likely to reach the levels seen in previous years. How could this influence food purchases? Let’s take cheese as an example. Domestic cheese use grew by 938 million pounds from 2021 to 2024, 18% more than the 797 million pounds of growth from 2017 to 2020. This occurred even though per capita consumption growth slowed from +5.5% to +3.1%. With slower population growth, there would be fewer people buying cheese, other dairy products, and goods and services in general.
Today's Special
- Consumers are often drawn to convenience when it comes to food purchases. They look for products and services that make everyday tasks in the kitchen easier or more efficient.
- That ease of use spurred the manufacturing of bagged shredded cheese decades ago. For the busy consumer, cheese of many varieties – already perfectly shredded and ready to use – became a staple on grocery shelves and in refrigerators.
- There seems to be a recent shift in what cheese customers are putting in their shopping carts, though. Cheese block sales have been on the rise, while shredded cheese sales are down. Retail scanner data from Circana showed volume sales of cheese shreds declined 0.6% year-over-year for the 12 weeks ending May 18. During that same period, block cheese sales rose 8.2%.
- There could be a few reasons behind this desire to pull out the cheese grater. For starters, there are some neat tools on the market, including rotary graters, that people seem eager to try. Others simply love the art of cooking, and the chance to shred their own cheese — fresh from the block — enhances the whole kitchen experience. Some feel freshly shredded cheese melts a little better. Shredding also allows cooks to get creative with different flavor combinations by mixing various types of cheese.
- Cheese grating is also having a bit of a moment on social media. We are seeing website promotions and TikTok videos featuring those rotary cheese graters, and social media influencers have made cheese shredding the cool thing to do. While this current social media fame may not be boosting sales — since we are trading one form of cheese for another — any positive promotion is good news for cheese. And when consumers can find cheese in many forms in the dairy aisle, they can choose whatever cheesy option suits them best.