As the final weeks of the legislative session in Washington unfold, the impact of recent victories in primaries across the country has started to reverberate in the halls of the Capitol. Riding a wave of anti-establishment feelings and dismay this election season, Tea Party activists have joined the fray, threatening to steal votes away from incumbents and challengers alike.
Whether or not the group manages to elect a candidate to office has yet to be seen; however it's clear that Washington's legislative agenda over the next month will be affected by Tea Party threats and election outcomes in November.
While the movement has dominated the political narrative over the past week and their anti-establishment sentiment has been felt throughout the primary season as a whole, legislators on the Hill are trying to determine what impact the group's success will have now and into the future.
Playing directly into the current Bush-era tax cuts debate, the Tea Party's mantra of "fewer taxes and less government" seems to be taking hold. A recent New York Times / CBS poll asked Tea Party members whether cutting taxes or reducing the deficit was more important. Cutting taxes prevailed, 49 percent to 42 percent.
The question on many insiders' minds, however, is just what the impact of the movement will be. With the discussion over the coming weeks centering on Bush-era tax cuts, the GOP and Tea Party enthusiasts have united to work together on extending all tax breaks installed under the former president.
Critics of the plan continue to look at what they call the hypocrisy of the measure. Republicans continue to push the deficit as their main issue, saying Democrats can't pay for all the programs that they'd like to create, yet the GOP isn't willing to back down on extending tax cuts for all, including the wealthiest Americans.
The Democrats plan would extend all tax cuts except for couples making more than $250,000.
Tea Party Moving the Needle?
Tea Party activists would like to claim that their recent victories have been enough to move the needle on the issue, noting that some Democrats have decided to press forward with all tax cuts, breaking from the party's platform. Those Democrats would counter that they're merely setting the stage for a larger fight next session and are continuing the cuts to assuage their constituency who fear the words "taxes" during this economic recovery.
Needless to say, the anti-establishment sentiment has struck a chord with legislators on the Hill, whether through the Tea Party's participation or not.
The Delaware primary victory of Christine O'Donnell (R-DE) over well-liked incumbent Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) has proved interesting. O'Donnell ran on a platform that specifically stated a vote for her was a vote against cap and trade, a provision of the climate bill supported by Castle. A win by O'Donnell in November could prove costly to the measure, particularly since the winner in the election will be appointed immediately to finish the final four years of Vice President Biden's Senate term.
Democrats, on the other hand, are taking a wait-and-see approach, unsure if the Tea Party candidate will be a legitimate force in the election. Insiders expect O'Donnell to have a tough time unifying the GOP base before November.
Her confidence, however, has not been shaken. According to the New York Times, O'Donnell has "described herself as casting the critical vote that would sink [climate change legislation]" should she win the general election this fall.