By Tony Eberhard, IDFA Vice President of Legislative Affairs

Welcome to “Hill of Beans,” a periodic update by Tony Eberhard about the association’s work in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate to advance dairy industry priorities. After working on the Hill for various members of Congress and senators since 2001, Eberhard gives IDFA readers a former Hill staffer’s take on what is going on and how it affects our priorities. 

“There is a lot of work being done in the House and Senate that never makes the headlines but affects members’ bottom lines, and I’m hoping these updates will prove useful to you and your organization,” Eberhard said. “I’m titling these updates ‘Hill of Beans’ because to many in national media this information might not amount to much, but to our industry’s agenda in Congress, it is critical.” Read the update below.

The Least Bad Option

The federal government will shut down by the weekend should Congress fail to pass an appropriations bill to fund the government by midnight on Friday, Jan. 19, said Tony Eberhard, IDFA vice president of legislative policy, in his latest Hill of Beans column.

Earlier in the year, there was talk of passing a full-year appropriations bill with adjustments to the budget caps for defense and non-defense spending, disaster assistance appropriations, an immigration deal with a Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) solution, Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) reauthorization and other weighty measures by this Friday’s deadline. Now, the “art of the possible” has been reduced to whether or not Congress can even pass another short-term government funding extension in time.

As I write today, it really is uncertain whether we’ll have a government shutdown or not. Many House Republicans on and off the House Armed Services Committee continue to push for tens of billions of dollars more in defense spending, which would require raising the statutory budget caps – not an easy task to accomplish. Meanwhile, Democrats in both chambers continue clamoring for a DACA fix and CHIP reauthorization.

There are certainly members of Congress weighing in on other areas, such as disaster assistance, but defense spending, DACA and CHIP seem to be the issues members of Congress are deciding to draw a line in the sand over and that will likely drive “no” votes on a short-term continuing resolution (CR). It’s important to remember that, while the vote math in the House is tough, it gets really interesting in the Senate where to pass an appropriations bill funding the government will require 60 votes, and the Republicans only have 51.

From the press reports, it looks like coming to an agreement to avert a shutdown before Friday is an impossible task. Yet, I’d still wager there will be a short-term agreement solely on the basis of the unpopularity of shutdowns. Regardless of which party takes more of the blame, a shutdown is widely unpopular, a fact both parties will be keenly aware of in this election year.

A poll of registered voters conducted December 1-3, 2017, by POLITICO/Morning Consult  during last December’s shutdown scare highlights the unpopularity of government shutdowns, even when they are used to advance popular policy objectives. Only 20 percent of respondents said it’s definitely worth shutting down the government to build the southern border wall, while the number approving of shutting down the government to address DACA was only 25 percent. Overall, this poll found that 63 percent of voters thought a shutdown should be avoided at all costs.

Republicans will remember that the last time the federal government shut down, in 2013, there was a significant backlash, and pro-business groups like the National Retail Federation, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers expressed public consternation. Meanwhile, Democrats in the Senate will be keeping in mind the 10 Senate Democrats running for re-election this year in states Trump won, with Senate Republicans nine  votes short of the 60 they need to pass a funding bill.

I’d expect that Republicans will give something to the Democrats to get a short-term CR, even if it’s just a commitment for further action on one of their key issues. One thing is certain: No one will be satisfied. The good news is that for those of you who are following the discussions about the inclusion of Margin Protection Program and Livestock Gross Margin provisions in a final appropriations bill or are hoping a guest-worker program that works for dairy is included in a larger immigration agreement, those debates aren’t over, they’re just delayed.

It now appears the House could be sending the Senate a bill that will fund the government until Feb. 16, delay certain Affordable Care Act taxes and provide a long-term solution for CHIP. This proposal won’t satisfy anyone, but when there are no good options, you tend to land on the one that is least bad.